Arnaud Vagner

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Arnaud Vagner
Occupation analyst, research
Employer Iceberg Research

Arnaud Vagner is an analyst and researcher for Iceberg Research.

Vagner is known for his analysis of his former employer Noble Group, once one of the world's largest commodity trading houses, according to Bloomberg. There, he served as a senior credit analyst.[1] Vagner left and began writing a series of anonymous reports about Noble, which almost collapsed and was forced to restructure in August 2018.[2][3]

Vagner's reports, heavily disputed by Noble, played a role in the firm's downward spiral.[4]


Before working with Iceberg Research, Vagner worked as a senior credit analyst at Noble in Hong Kong starting in 2011. He was fired by Noble in 2013.

In 2015, he began writing reports about the company, exposing flawed calculations about Noble's profit forecasts on the long-term contracts it held in commodities. He estimated those positions were overvalued by $3.8 billion. Following that, the firm wrote down massive losses that far exceeded Iceberg's estimates. Noble, once valued at $11.7 billion in 2011, had a market cap of just $115 million by August 2018.

Noble has sued Vagner in Hong Kong, claiming that Vagner's reports were aimed at harming the firm. Noble was seeking unspecified damages, interest and costs as well as restraining Vagner and Iceberg from publishing further reports about the company. Iceberg countered that its research was based on public information provided by Noble.[5]



  1. Former Senior Credit Analyst at Noble revealed as the man behind Iceberg Research. Splash 247.
  2. Noble Group warns of liquidity constraints as it reports Q2 loss. Reuters.
  3. The Man Who Triggered a $10 Billion Commodity Collapse Finally Speaks. Bloomberg.
  4. Noble sues former credit analyst after Iceberg reports. MetalBulletin.
  5. Who is Arnaud Vagner? Noble Video Gives a Clue. Wall Street Journal.
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