PredictIt
| PredictIt | |
| |
| Founded | 2014 |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Washington, D.C., United States |
| Key People | Victoria University of Wellington (owner), Aristotle Inc. (management), Brandi Travis (executive) |
| Employees | Fewer than 25 |
| Products | Real-money political and economic prediction markets, contract trading, data-sharing for research |
| @PredictIt | |
| Profile | |
| Page | |
| Website | www.predictit.org |
| Releases | Company News |
| Blog | https://analysis.predictit.org |
PredictIt is an online real-money prediction market that allows individuals to trade contracts based on the outcome of political, economic, and financial events. Established in 2014 as a nonprofit academic project by Victoria University of Wellington in partnership with Aristotle Inc., PredictIt is designed to facilitate research in forecasting while offering market participants the opportunity to buy and sell shares reflecting their predictions on a diverse range of topics.[1]
History[edit]
PredictIt was launched on November 3, 2014, as a successor to New Zealand’s iPredict platform. Its creation was spearheaded by Victoria University of Wellington and the Aristotle political technology firm, with the explicit aim of supporting academic research into prediction markets. PredictIt initially operated under a ‘‘no-action’’ letter from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), permitting it to accept U.S. customers as a nonprofit educational initiative, with strict limits on both trader participation and investment per contract.[2]
In 2022, the CFTC withdrew this permission, ordering PredictIt to liquidate its markets. PredictIt and its supporters challenged this action in court, leading to an extended legal dispute. In June 2025, PredictIt reached a settlement with the CFTC, resulting in the lifting of most previous participation and investment limits, which restored greater access for market participants and signaled a possible shift toward a more favorable regulatory climate.[3]
Products and Services[edit]
PredictIt operates a continuous double auction system for trading shares, each share corresponding to a particular event outcome (such as the result of a specific election or legislative vote).
Trading is open to U.S. individuals, and market prices generally move between $0.01 and $0.99 per share, with correct predictions redeemed for $1 per share. Markets span a wide array of topics, though they primarily focus on U.S. elections and political events, and have included markets on future government actions and policy outcomes.[4]
Originally, participants could invest up to $850 per contract with a cap of 5,000 traders per question; these limits have since been raised to $3,500 per contract and the trader cap removed, enhancing liquidity and strengthening PredictIt’s leadership in event-based prediction markets.[5] PredictIt charges transaction fees—10% on earnings above the original investment and a 5% withdrawal fee—reinvested into operating costs and academic research.
Key People[edit]
PredictIt is owned and overseen by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, while software and day-to-day operations are managed in collaboration with Aristotle Inc. Key figures in PredictIt’s founding and management have included John Aristotle Phillips and Dean Aristotle Phillips, who played central roles in launching the platform and running its U.S. operations.[6]
References[edit]
- ↑ What is PredictIt?. PredictIt.
- ↑ Is PredictIt Legal?. Political Prediction Markets.
- ↑ PredictIt, CFTC Reach Settlement in Longstanding Lawsuit. Covers.
- ↑ PredictIt Review: Legal Political Betting Markets. BettingUSA.
- ↑ PredictIt Lifts Limit on Political Trades in New CFTC Agreement. Casino.org.
- ↑ Is PredictIt Legal?. Political Prediction Markets.